The Michigan softball team’s 14-game win streak and possibility of the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament was stomped out by Ohio State last weekend, when the Wolverines ended their regular season with two consecutive losses to the Buckeyes. Michigan is headed to Iowa City, where it will face Maryland on Thursday. The Daily’s softball beat (Alina Levine, Graham Barker, Jordan Klein and Sam Gibson) now predicts the outcome of the Big Ten Tournament.
How far does Michigan go?
Levine: Semi-finals
This Michigan team is not the same as last year’s. Though plagued by inconsistency early in the season, the Wolverines have bounced back and are resilient as ever. This team feeds off energy, and I can’t think of a time where the energy is higher than it is right now.
But it’s important to remember that energy alone won’t win Michigan the game. After their lackluster offensive performance against Ohio State last weekend, I believe the Wolverines’ problem lies in who they could possibly face in the semi-finals: Rutgers. With the second-best batting average in the Big Ten, the Scarlet Knights pose a great threat to Michigan’s defense, one that has served as the backbone of Michigan’s team all season. Leading the attack for Rutgers are Kyleigh Sand and Morgan Smith, both of whom possess a batting average of over .400 and OPS above 1.000 — certainly enough to chip away at the Wolverines’ defensive foundation.
Michigan’s latest defensive breakdown occurred at the hands of Ohio State. Usually when the Wolverines’ stagnant offense is unable to produce, they look to their defense to hold down the fort. But the Buckeyes broke down Michigan’s defense, and it cost them two games. When looking at the Scarlet Knights’ offense, there are many similarities to Ohio States’, and it begs the question of whether or not the Wolverines’ ace, Lauren Derwowski, and its defense will be able to withstand Rutgers’ barrage of hits.
History often repeats itself, and I think the same will happen against Rutgers. When Michigan’s defense has fallen in the past, it brought the whole team with it — this time will be no different.
Barker: Wins final
Yes, Michigan is coming off of back-to-back heart-crushing losses to its biggest rival. Yes, it was held to only one combined run in those two games. But the Wolverines have come back from worse already this season. They started 14-11 with an offense showing no signs of life before starting a ten-game win streak in which they averaged 7.8 runs per game. And after they were swept by Northwestern, they responded with 14 straight wins. This Michigan team has faced real adversity and came back better from it — last weekend’s two losses aren’t a high bar for it to jump.
If anything, the losses will inspire the Wolverines, leaving them with a bitter taste in their mouth this week. What’s more motivating than having your senior day ruined by your biggest rival? And even more, the losses push Michigan closer to the NCAA Tournament bubble, making its performance this week increasingly important for its hopes of receiving a tournament bid. This week, the Big Ten will be facing the same motivated, angry Wolverines team that came off of their rough start to the season and their series against the Wildcats. And as Michigan proved in both instances, that’s not a team anyone wants to face.
The Wolverines also have the experience in this tournament to make a run. Key players like junior outfielder Ellie Sieler and junior infielder Ella McVey were starters for Michigan in the 2022 Big Ten Tournament Championship. And although she hasn’t been head coach for any of them, Wolverines coach Bonnie Tholl has been on the coaching staff for 10 Michigan championships. Wolverines associate head coach Jennifer Brundage has been in the dugout for six of those. Michigan has the talent, the experience, and — with its losses to the Buckeyes, the motivation — to take home the Big Ten Tournament Championship this weekend.
Klein: Semi-finals
Throughout most of Big Ten play, Michigan’s offense emphatically erased the rightful doubts about their production that emerged following non-conference play. After coming into league play as the Big Ten’s lowest-scoring team, the Wolverines were the second-highest scoring Big Ten team in conference games, a sign of their once-stagnant offense’s powerful surge. Through its fourteen-game win streak, Michigan scored an outstanding 7.2 runs per game, supporting its usually-dominant pitching staff when they weren’t at their best.
But this weekend against Ohio State, the Buckeyes put the Wolverines’ winning streak and offensive explosion to bed. Michigan scored only one run in the final two games of the series, both of which they lost.
The Wolverines’ slumping offense shouldn’t come back to bite them in the quarterfinals against tenth-seeded Maryland, who allows a dismal 4.47 runs per game to Big Ten opponents. But Michigan will likely encounter third-seeded Rutgers in the next round, who will present a formidable test for the Wolverines’ bats. The Scarlet Knights allow just 3.29 runs per game to Big Ten opponents, a mark that places them second in the conference, only behind Northwestern. And their stellar pitching staff is led by all-Big Ten First Team right-hander Mattie Boyd, who finished second in the conference with a 2.16 ERA. Michigan’s offense thrives off of confidence and momentum, but they have anything but that entering their matchup with Rutgers and a likely duel with Boyd.
And Boyd and the Scarlet Knights are too great of an obstacle for the Wolverines to re-find their offensive momentum.
Gibson: Quarterfinals
Michigan didn’t expect to end its regular season like this. For a while, everything was clicking: the Wolverines’ offense was soaring, their bonafide ace Lauren Derkowski had returned to dominant form and they just kept on finding ways to win. Ohio State promptly put an end to that last weekend, holding Michigan’s recently-potent offense to a single run over the final two games of the series. The last time the Wolverines scored one run or less was over two months ago.
Michigan found out its next opponent from the stands on Wednesday, when Maryland upset Penn State in a tireless extra-innings affair. The Wolverines took their seats and watched, as the Nittany Lions’ dominant defense couldn’t make up for a near-silent offense. That slow-burn loss probably felt like deja-vu to Michigan, because that was exactly how the Wolverines’ final two games against the Buckeyes went. You see where I’m headed with this? When the Terrapins see Michigan step up to bat, they’ll know exactly how to handle things.
Maybe if the Wolverines hadn’t just ended its regular season losing to their biggest rivals, I’d have Michigan taking this one. But my biggest takeaway from the Wolverines’ conference slate, exemplified by the series against Ohio State, is that Michigan can spiral as quickly as it can, well, whatever the opposite of spiral is.
Michigan goes where its momentum does, and the Wolverines are going to keep sinking.
Who wins the Big Ten Tournament?
Levine: Northwestern
Just like last season, Northwestern has continued to dominate the Big Ten. Boasting a 19-3 conference record and a wealth of experience, the Wildcats have rightfully earned the No. 1 seed in the tournament.
While there is undeniable strength in its bats, Northwestern’s biggest asset is its ace: right-hander Ashley Miller. As the best pitcher in the Big Ten with a 1.34 season ERA, Miller has proved lethal in the circle, having allowed only 29 earned runs this season. With their dominance in the circle, there’s no reason the Wildcats shouldn’t claim the tournament title for the second time.
Barker: Michigan
I’ve already laid out why Michigan has what it takes to win the Big Ten tournament, but why them over a team like Northwestern, who took the regular season title? Well, the Wildcats have looked more than beatable as of late. Just last weekend, Northwestern dropped a game to a middling Indiana team, who it’ll face again in the quarterfinals. The Wildcats also just barely eked out a series victory over Nebraska the weekend before. They won the opener by only one run and the finale was canceled due to weather while they were down several runs. Northwestern may be the regular season champions and the reigning tournament winners, but it isn’t as vulnerable as it might seem.
Michigan’s path to the final — where they might face the Wildcats — has opened up nicely, too. With Maryland beating Penn State in the opening round, the Wolverines avoid a rematch with the Nittany Lions and right-hander Bridget Nemeth, who gave them trouble in their weekend series. Michigan would likely face Rutgers in the semifinals, who — despite a good batting average as a team — lacks consistency in its lineup, which pitchers like Derkowski could take advantage of. Ohio State and Wisconsin lurk as potential semifinal matchups, too, but if the Wolverines’ offense returns to form, they should have more than a good chance against either team.
Klein: Northwestern
Like it did last year, Northwestern ran through Big Ten play this season, finishing atop the conference at 19-3. And for good reason. Dominant in all aspects of the game, the Wildcats boast the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year, right-hander Ashley Miller, and have allowed 22 less runs than the next-best team and lead the league in home runs in conference play. With that, there’s no reason to believe Northwestern shouldn’t repeat as Big Ten champions.
Sure, they lost to Indiana this past weekend and Purdue two weekends ago, but both of those losses came without Miller in the circle. With her out there, the Wildcats are nearly unhittable, as she’s posted a league-best 0.66 ERA on the season. Coupled with Miller’s dominance, Northwestern’s postseason experience has prepared it to show up on the biggest stages. The Wildcats have the most talent and postseason experience in the Big Ten, so there’s no reason why they shouldn’t leave Iowa City with their second consecutive Big Ten championship.
Gibson: Northwestern
Recently, Northwestern hasn’t been as sharp as it usually is. The Wildcats dropped a game to Indiana last week. Two weeks ago, they were down 5-0 after four innings to Nebraska before rain canceled the game. Before that, they gave Purdue — the team with the second worst batting average in the Big Ten — its best win of the season.
Those results don’t look too good, until you zoom out and realize that Northwestern has won just about every other game in conference play. The Wildcats’ offense has a tendency to keep it close, but defense wins championships. Northwestern’s defense is headlined by ace Ashley Miller — the best pitcher in the Big Ten — and the Wildcats are going to rely on Miller and last year’s tournament experience to repeat for the first time in program history.
Bold predictions?
Levine: Michigan makes it to the finals
Barker: Northwestern loses in the quarterfinals
Klein: Rutgers makes a run to the championship
Gibson: Maryland makes it to the final game, before losing to Northwestern in extras
Tournament MVP?
Levine: Jess Oakland
Barker: Lauren Derkowski
Klein: Ashley Miller
Gibson: Ashley Miller