For all of the success the Michigan softball team has had this season, its past three series openers have been losses to unranked teams by scores of 10-2, 3-2 and 9-3.
Another stinker like those on Friday and the Wolverines will be headed home early from the Big Ten Tournament in Evanston.
Michigan (18-5 Big Ten, 40-11 overall) heads into this weekend’s tournament after its seventh straight conference championship, but the Wolverines have lost five of their last 11 to fall into a tie for first place.
Ironically, the sustained success earlier in the season — including a 20-game win streak — piled on pressure that made Michigan tense for the final three weekends of the regular season.
“This is a team that is so afraid of not winning,” said Michigan coach Carol Hutchins after last Friday’s loss to Wisconsin. “They’re so caught up in their outcomes, which is not what we teach at Michigan. We teach process, but they’re not buying in.”
First, it was a two-hit shutout at the hands of Minnesota. Then, a four-error performance in a run-rule loss to Illinois, which was in last place at the time. Finally, a 9-3 blowout against Wisconsin last Friday night.
There have been bright spots for the Wolverines. Each time, they responded, most recently with a 10-2 mercy-rule victory over Wisconsin on Saturday. The next day, with the outright Big Ten championship on the line, Michigan battled for more than three hours with Wisconsin before falling in nine innings, 6-5.
Despite the result Sunday, Hutchins saw improvement in her team in its final series of the regular season.
Regardless of the past three weeks, the Wolverines have the best player in the conference, sophomore shortstop Sierra Romero, as evidenced by her Big Ten Player of the Year award announced Wednesday. It also has three of the best pitchers in the conference, including junior left-hander Haylie Wagner, who has struggled with a 1-2 record and 4.79 earned-run average in her last six appearances but still won the league ERA title.
As a team, Michigan ranks first in runs scored, batting average, ERA and fielding percentage.
If the Wolverines play the way they played for most of the season, hardly anyone else has a chance. If they continue to make mistakes and play down to their competition, the field is wide-open.
Here’s a look at their chances in each round.
QUARTERFINALS: Possible opponents are No. 8 seed Iowa (9-14, 16-29-1) or No. 9 seed Illinois (7-16, 23-25).
The top seed’s quarterfinal game is traditionally lopsided, but that was the expectation two weeks ago when the Wolverines rolled into Champaign. Instead, Illinois mercied Michigan in the first game and would have won the series if not for a late error in the finale.
The Hawkeyes come in well below the .500 mark but do boast shortstop Megan Blank, a first-team All-Big Ten and All-Defensive Team honoree.
The Fighting Illini seem to be peaking at the right time, led by freshman pitcher Brandi Needham’s tidy 2.94 ERA. Illinois also has four hitters who hit above .300 and can get on a roll — just as they did in the series opener against Michigan.
This season, that 10-2 loss to Illinois has been the exception rather than the rule for Michigan. The Wolverines should coast, barring a collapse.
SEMIFINALS: Possible opponents are No. 12 seed Michigan State (4-19, 12-36), No. 5 seed Northwestern (14-9, 32-15) and No. 4 seed Wisconsin (15-7, 33-17).
The Wildcats should take care of Michigan State easily on their home field Thursday, setting up a quarterfinal matchup Friday against Wisconsin, which could go either way.
The Wolverines have not yet seen Northwestern, which has posed an issue in the past. The Wildcats rank just behind Michigan in batting average (.334) and fielding percentage (.970) and first in on-base percentage. However, their pitching lags a bit behind with a 3.75 ERA.
At Northwestern’s small, hitter-friendly Sharon J. Drysdale Field, the Wolverines might have a chance to go deep.
As they showed last weekend, the Badgers can pose just as much of an issue. They have two capable pitchers who each beat Michigan once last weekend, and they lead the Big Ten by far with 107 stolen bases.
Wisconsin’s contact hitting and crafty base running allow the Badgers to hang around in games. Last weekend, they clung to a 4-2 lead on Friday before breaking out with a five-run seventh. Sunday, they matched Michigan run for run before pulling through with a solo shot in the ninth.
FINAL: It could be any one of six teams, but the likely opponents are No. 2 seed Nebraska (18-5, 40-14) or No. 3 seed Minnesota (16-6, 38-9).
For NCAA Tournament purposes, the Wolverines should hope for Nebraska or Minnesota. For the most part, the top 16 in the RPI host regionals, and Michigan is on the outside looking in at No. 18. A win over the 17th-ranked Gophers or 19th-ranked Cornhuskers might push them over the edge.
But neither of those would come easily. The Wolverines have not played Nebraska, but they would run up against some firepower.
The power-hitting Cornhuskers rank right behind Michigan in runs and lead the league in doubles and home runs, and have the best chance of testing the Wolverines’ top-ranked pitching staff. On the other side, Nebraska has a 1-2 pitching punch of Tatum Edwards and Emily Lockman, who have twin 1.94 ERAs.
Michigan took two of three from Minnesota three weeks ago at Alumni Field. The key for the Gophers is pitching. Big Ten Pitcher and Freshman of the Year Sara Groenewegen finished 12-2 with a 2.27 ERA, and Sara Moulton was at times even better, going 24-6 with a 1.69 ERA.
A loss early in the tournament — or even to a lesser opponent in the final — could send the Wolverines tumbling further in the tournament. But a championship could bring them back to where they were during March.
The former could mean a short postseason for Michigan. A championship might mean it’s just getting started.